FALSE: China is not responsible for two-thirds of the world's carbon dioxide emissions
A claim that China is responsible for two-thirds of the world's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions is FALSE.
A post on X (formerly Twitter) claimed that China is responsible for two-thirds of the entire world's CO₂ emissions. It adds that the reason for it is the Belt and Road Initiative.
In 2024, China emitted 12.29 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, according to data from the 2025 Global Carbon Budget. This amounted to 31.84 per cent of global emissions, roughly a third.
This figure matches that of other data sources. The International Energy Agency (IEA) found that China emitted 12.6bn tonnes of CO₂ in 2024. According to the IEA figures, this was 33.51 per cent of the global total.
According to the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, China's share of the world's emissions was 33.98 percent in 2023.
The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive infrastructure project funded by China's government to link it to much of the rest of the world to boost trade. Almost all of Africa has signed up for it.
There has been a lot of research on the CO₂ emissions repercussions of the project. Several papers suggested that the initiative actually decreased emissions in partner cities because of added renewable energy and technology transfer (here, here, here, here, and here).
Other papers found that the initiative leads to slightly more emissions in total, but reduces per capita emissions and emissions intensity. Some studies found that the initiative led to an increase in emissions in some sectors while it reduced them in others. Some studies found a modest increase in emissions.
All in all, the studies suggest that the Belt and Road Initiative would not alter China's emissions share significantly.
China's cumulative and per capita emissions (see below) are also lower than several other countries with smaller populations.
China's investment in and electricity generation from renewable sources dwarfs that of the rest of the world. China's CO₂ emissions have also flatlined and have been falling for the last 18 months (here, here, and here)
PesaCheck has examined a claim that China is responsible for two-thirds of the world's carbon dioxide emissions and finds it to be FALSE.
This post is part of an ongoing series of PesaCheck fact-checks examining content marked as potential misinformation on Facebook and other social media platforms.
By partnering with Facebook and similar social media platforms, third-party fact-checking organisations like PesaCheck are helping to sort fact from fiction. We do this by giving the public deeper insight and context to posts they see in their social media feeds.
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This fact-check was written by PesaCheck climate change fact-checker Christiaan van der Merwe and edited by PesaCheck chief copy editor Stephen Ndegwa.
The article was approved for publication by PesaCheck’s managing editor Doreen Wainainah.
PesaCheck is East Africa’s first public finance fact-checking initiative. It was co-founded by Catherine Gicheru and Justin Arenstein, and is being incubated by the continent’s largest civic technology and data journalism accelerator: Code for Africa. It seeks to help the public separate fact from fiction in public pronouncements about the numbers that shape our world, with a special emphasis on pronouncements about public finances that shape government’s delivery of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) public services, such as healthcare, rural development and access to water/ sanitation. PesaCheck also tests the accuracy of media reportage. To find out more about the project, visit pesacheck.org.
PesaCheck is an initiative of Code for Africa, through its innovateAFRICA fund, with support from Deutsche Welle Akademie, in partnership with a coalition of local African media and other civic watchdog organisations.